Nuclear Danger: Lessons from Cuba and Ukraine

October 1962: The USSR introduced nuclear weapons into Cuba bordering the US, which America saw as radically destabilizing the “balance of terror” and posing an existential threat. War was narrowly averted by a compromise that removed the weapons and guaranteed Cuban independence. February 2022: Russia shattered post-Cold War European peace. It viewed an independent Ukraine bordering its territory as an existential threat, the result of Western aggression. Might frustration tempt Russia to escalate across the nuclear threshold to find peace on its own terms? Ukraine gave up its nuclear arsenal in 1994; had it kept its nukes then, would Russia have been tempted to invade now?  

What might we learn about crises involving nuclear powers? Cuba and Ukraine are examined in terms of context (Cold War v. globalization), political aim (expansion v. defense), strategic operation (nuclear threat v. denial) and possible outcome (stalemate v. accommodation).

Herbert Gooch is professor emeritus of political science at California Lutheran University. He formerly served as director of the Masters in Public Policy and Administration program and assistant provost for Graduate Studies at Cal Lutheran. A graduate of UC Berkeley in history, he holds an MBA in management and both master's and doctoral degrees in political science from UCLA.

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